Is Recession coming.... few signals we should know

Everyone is discussing recession, So the question is whether the recession is in sight now. There are a couple of indications of financial downturn that can, when consolidated somehow or another, demonstrate a recession is brewing..

Yield curve inverts

When interest rates on short-term government bonds surpass the interest rates for long-term government bonds, business analysts state that yield curve has inverted. That is an indication of cynicism among financial specialists, and it's a solid expectation of economic downturn. In fact, the last five recessions have been preceded by a yield curve inversion, in spite of the fact that it doesn't imply that recession will happen right away.

Unemployment rate rises

There's a stream down impact that happens in a down economy: People quit spending money, which means organizations don't work out quite as well. Organizations cut a portion of their workers. If a lot of businesses are doing this at the same time, it makes it harder for those laid-off folks to find new employment. In the event that the joblessness rate goes up, it's a sign that things aren't looking incredible.

GDP drops 

Gross domestic product (GDP) is, to put it plainly, the size of the economy. It's regularly determined by seeing purchaser spending, business speculation, and fares.If that combined measure dips significantly, it’s bad news.

Stock market tanks

When the stock market declines quickly—like when you see a headline about the "most terrible day of the year," or something gloom and doom—this is on the grounds that numerous financial specialists aren't sure about the economy and they're auctioning off as much stock as they can. If the stock market dips over and over, on a close regular routine, it's an indication of trouble.

Some recent developments, which we should also know are

Acceleration in US-China levy war 

Eighteen months prior Donald Trump started his "America first" crusade with a battle about steel dumping. The US president forced 25% import duties on steel against China, the EU, India, Canada and Mexico.

Easing back US development 

Trump inherited a buoyant economy and gave it a sugar surge of personal tax reductions and corporate giveaways. Outstanding development a year ago incited the US national bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to calm things down.

Long recession in Germany 

Angela Merkel’s finance minister, Olaf Scholz, has raisd desires for a €50bn (£45bn) lift to the German economy to head off an imminent recession. The economy shrunk just barely in the subsequent quarter – 0.1% – yet is hope to endure a second and bigger drop in the second from last quarter.

Chinese debt crisis

China, more than the US, has been the additional gear for the worldwide economy since the 2008 financial crash, but the country is in the throes of a full-blown debt crisis.

Brexit

The uncertainty surrounding Britain’s future and whether it remains inside the world’s largest trading bloc or swims alone has already damaged investment and GDP growth.

Other countries performance 

A string of countries are currently in recession or have recently suffered a contraction. India's Auto sector is going through a great recession which is resulting in massive job losses. Iran faces a blockade by the US and is unable to sell its oil or access the financial markets easily. Argentina is weighed down by enormous debts and Venezuela, despite holding the world’s largest oil reserves, is in political and economic crisis.


The bad news is that recessions are pretty inevitable, meaning sooner or later, one will land. The good news is that the economy eventually recovers. 

Building your Dream Team: Intuition & Data, Leadership & Process

In his keynote session at TechHR 2019, Anil Kumble, the former cricketer and Padma Shri Recipient, shed light on what goes into becoming a great leader and how to overcome the obstacles to becoming a successful leader.

The Crux of Leadership: 

“You are as good as your last performance,'' says Anil Kumble. Leadership is about leading oneself, and building a team to navigate the highs and lows. Kumble owes his best performance (1999), to his courage to be unorthodox and carve his own niche. Leaders are under constant radar, and so was the young version of Kumble. “I was 19 and was doing my engineering- plan A. Cricket was plan B, and when I was out of the team after my first series, it was tough,” says the icon. 

Despite people discrediting his bowling style, he pushed ahead to prove them wrong. A leader has to prove time and again, that he can perform. The SA series was very crucial and with it going well, he got the confidence. 

 Once you know you can do it once, you know you can repeat that

This confidence must be coupled with learning. Kumble met former leg spinner, V V Kumar to learn the orthodox leg spin. He unlearned, relearnt, and changed his action and within five days, applied the technique live in the Bombay versus Rest of India at Wankhede. To sustain the performance for a period of time, evolve, innovative, think and act different. “Keep asking those questions differently,'' says Kumble. How to best camouflage your weaknesses will allow you to bring your strength to the forefront with a calm mind, in the toughest situations. “This is my style, and I will stick to this”, quotes Kumble.  

The Obstacles to Leadership Success

Organizations aspire for diversity. Yet, people who do not fit in often face doubts. Kumble often questioned, “should I change my style?”. The key lies in persisting with who you truly are. Leaders today must train the mind to try. This encompasses getting out of the comfort zone, unlearning and persistently actioning. 

Sticking to your strengths can help own up responsibilities for the team. “I looked at myself as someone who had opportunity to change the course of the game, whether the situation was hopeless or good”, says Kumble. Being a leader entails being a part of the group, at the same time being honest with yourself and also about the team. You cannot change, just because you are captain. Keep open the developmental eye i.e. gear up your people for any eventuality on the field. 

Perhaps the single biggest challenge in successful leadership is being authentic. Kumble seconds this, “with honesty and straightforwardness, upfront, people know who you are and it is easier to handle any situation.” This came handy during the Australia-Sydney incident, when, after the match, Kumble had to handle the team from a different perspective, in the wake of media glare. Every leader faces the dissonance- “Should I stand up and own up, or should I send someone?” For Kumble too, this doubt lingered, and he decided to speak to everyone head-first- a great learning curve indeed! 

Technology versus human touch – Leadership Enablers

Cricket has adopted a lot of technology for key decision-making. Today, cricketers observe recordings and reflect. “I was the first captain to take a laptop into the dressing room and everyone was like, how does that help us?” says Anil Kumble. With so much data, one single delivery can be tackled in multiple ways. Of course, experts like Kumble are still relevant to decide for the data, simplify and help people understand so that the fabric of the game stays intact. No one will enjoy an interaction where the leader is appealing to the computer! 

Thus leadership must merge the best of both worlds- technology and human skills so as to take everyone towards success. 

Source: People Matters 07 Aug, 2019

Gamification : Using games to create immersive learning experiences

In the last few years, recall the top things that made the news?

Demonetization, Brexit, Unemployment, Candy Crush, Pokemon Go, PubG,…

Though games aren’t the new fad but most recently, gaming is taking over the world.  They went from being the preserve of nerds and geeks to being more prominent than films. And now they are making their mark in education and learning segment.

Yes, playing games can now make 21st-century skills!

Researches have shown that our brains are wired for pleasure. The games are an effective way to learn because they simulate thrill and keep our minds engaged and happy. But what exactly do we learn from them? In an era consumed with developing 21st-century soft skills, are games any good at building critical thinking or collaboration skills?

The answer is likely, yes.

Immersive gamification can bring learners of multiple generations to collaborate, motivate each other, and learn from a real-world application. When Rewards are coupled with learning, it creates a sense of excitement to achieving objectives and creates a sense of accomplishment.

Gamification proves to be an effective approach to learning too. As reported by studies, globally, the gamification of education market will explode to $1.2 billion in 2020 from just about $93 million in 2015.

Here is why Gamification can offer your workforce the immersive learning experience they want:

Problem-solving: 

Gamification’s most significant benefit is that it minimizes the traditional, outdated style of learning by challenging the participant at precisely the right level. When learners feel challenged, they are motivated to learn more. 

Recognition Motivates:

When learners are publicly or even privately recognized, they feel more satisfied and accomplished. The gamified platforms these days allow learners to view awards in their learner dashboard and then share those awards with classmates, via social media, or by downloading transcripts and certificates. 

Re-activates curiosity:

Humans have a natural desire to be curious, discover, and to learn, but this is often discouraged with old training methods. Gamification can re-activate this desire to inculcate learning as a part of daily routine.

Gamified learning acts on multiple senses for an immersive experience that increases learners' enjoyment and desire to achieve goals. This response to purely recreational games is now being harnessed and used in the business world. 

One can further enhance the experience of the gamified learning by inculcating following techniques:

Create real life scenarios that challenge the learner. A strong story where the player is a put as a protagonist will get learners to engage and care. This creates stress and tension that propels the learner forward.

Build urgency in the program. By having a threat working against the learner you are increasing the need desire to move faster and do better. The key is having the threat be immediate and real. 

Ultimately, gamification gives us goals and goals give purpose. When used correctly, it uses our natural tendency to be goal-orientated and to set standards we want to achieve in the future.

Source: People Matters, 22 July 2019

Products Spread Differently Than Entirely New Products

Predictions about how products spread are usually based on the assumption that a few early adopters encourage an increasing number of people to start using the product. This assumption has largely been true of new technologies. But our research on phones, cars, and apps shows that when a product is not new but instead updates or replaces an existing product (which we call replacement innovations), the growth curve is very different, and managers making estimates around exponential growth are setting unrealistic expectations.

A better formula for estimating the early growth of replacement innovations follows a power law, with rapid adoption in the beginning followed by much more gradual takeoff as users make individual adoption decisions. This model generates more accurate predictions about adoption and, in turn, more realistic expectations and better understanding of resource needs.

New innovative products or technologies rarely emerge from a vacuum; in many cases they replace old technologies or earlier offerings that served a similar purpose. Consider 4K TV. The recently released technology delivers better image resolution for an enhanced TV-viewing experience. While that’s desirable, most people already have a TV — or three. So in order for them to buy a 4K TV, their calculus isn’t about just the new TV in and of itself; it’s also about whether to discard the old to bring in the new, at a somewhat hefty price tag.

To study the adoption of replacement innovations, we examined four areas: mobile phones (patterns for use of 885 handsets among 3.6 million Northern European customers between 2006 and 2014), cars (sales patterns for 126 automobiles sold in North America between 2010 and 2016), apps (daily downloads for the 2,672 most popular iOS apps from November 2016 to December 2016), and scientists’ research focus (246,630 scientists who published in 6,399 research fields). In each of these areas we documented the early growth of replacement innovations following a power law with non-integer exponents. This means that when the product was introduced, it had a singular growth momentum that was fundamentally different from its growth in the rest of sales periods.

To understand this, consider what happens when Apple releases a new iPhone. There may well be lines of early adopters outside the store for the device’s release, but subsequently, even if positive word-of-mouth spreads, the next waves of adopters will have to decide that they’re ready to replace their current phones with the new one. The slower, more deliberate decisions they make help to explain why replacement innovations grow more slowly.

We identified three mechanisms that are primarily responsible for the observed replacement dynamics: (1) recency, or how recently the new innovation has been introduced; (2) replacement propensity, as some products are more “fit” to replace original versions than others are; and (3) popularity, since more successful, or popular, products, are more likely to attract more new users — success begets success. A model that combines these three mechanisms enables us to explain the growth patterns of replacement products and to identify three parameters associated with this growth. These parameters are: fitness (how fit your product is to replace others), anticipation (initial excitement among potential users), and longevity (how long before the product may become obsolete). To understand intuitively how sales will go, ask yourself about each of these variables. The more recent or popular the innovation, or the better the product-market fit, the higher the sales.

Business leaders are often faced with the challenge of understanding which factors best determine whether and when a new product will succeed in unseating incumbent innovations. Our model offers a new way to start estimating the three adoption parameters once initial sales data becomes available. Decision makers can use these early figures and other related signals to assess whether the product’s fit, initial excitement, and shelf life are meeting expectations, and adjust tactics accordingly. For example, it may be important to focus on fit and improving product shelf life (longevity) during the design phase, with more attention to generating excitement (anticipation) among target users as the product launch nears.

For managers making decisions about when and how to release replacement products and innovations, this finding means that if you’ve been applying the traditional adoption model to what could be considered replacement products, you’re likely underestimating the initial excitement about your new product while overestimating the overall speed and size of adoption. This could mean wasted opportunities at the outset, followed by unrealistic expectations and, potentially, misallocated resources for the expected growth phase. On the other hand, our finding about the adoption of replacement innovations can help to create better prediction models, which may lead to better long-term organizational performance and create a significant advantage that competitors using other models can’t match.

Source: HBR 17 July, 19